A single year of exceedance above 1.5°C does not mean we have breached

 "A single year of exceedance above 1.5°C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5°C could be exceeded for an extended period," Dr. Leon Hermanson, the lead researcher of the report, explained in a UK Met Office statement.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Updates, which are led by the UK Met Office, are the product of 18 different organizations from around the world, including the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.

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For much of Canada, predictions from the report show a general increase in both temperature and precipitation amounts throughout the year. The exception is in the southern Prairies and southern British Columbia. These regions are expected to have warmer, drier summers over the next five years. This could have impacts on water availability, agriculture, and wildfires.

WMO-UKMO-2022-2026-Climate-Update-Temp-PrecipThese forecast maps, compiled from the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, show temperature anomalies (top row) and precipitation anomalies (bottom row), from May through September (left column) and November through March (right column), between 2022-2026. (WMO/UK Met Office)

In other parts of the world, Europe is more likely to suffer through drier summers over the next five years, and drier than normal conditions are expected to impact the Amazon and southern Africa year-round. The most extreme temperature anomalies are forecasted to occur across the Arctic, where it is likely to be more than three times as warm as the global average between now and 2026.

"For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise," Taalas said. "And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme. Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic affects all of us. "

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